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By Ian Wyatt, NewsletterAdvisors.com |
AA | Dec 31, 2008 |
Our final installment of Investment Expert Insights for 2008 comes from Ron Coby, CIO of Coby Lamson Capital Management ( http://www.cobylamson.com) and author of "The Upside of Down," a book published by Wiley and due for release in February 2009. Coby is a Registered Investment Advisor and a Commodities Trading Advisor.
Ron, what advice are you giving subscribers/clients to weather the current storm?
Our clients were 100% cash through the September to October 2008 crash in our managed accounts, and we started buying stocks in early December to take advantage of a powerful bear market rally.
Is your focus on safety or profits or both, and why?
Our focus is safety first then profits. We are looking for low risk-high reward times to buy and short stocks.
What do you think it will take to inject confidence into the markets?
When the DJIA gets back above 10,000, confidence will return, as people will expect the worst is behind.
Would you have voted for or against the last "rescue" bill, and why?
I would not have voted for the bill because it is just a Band-aid on a gushing wound in the global economy. However, I would have considered voting for the package if there was complete transparency and accountability for where the money would go and why.
What would be your fix for the financial crisis, and is a fix in this in this sector necessary to boost the markets?
Prices are too high in real estate and ultimately they need to come down. Keeping that overpriced market propped up will not solve this crisis. Forcing money into the banking system to lend and pushing more speculative debt into the system is not the answer. Let the free market forces do what they are supposed to do, and that would give us a short-term pain for long-term gain solution. Otherwise, we will just prolong the necessary adjustments the economy needs to make.
What 3 stocks would you buy today?
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA), part of the DJIA, is extremely cheap at around $11 per share and has a 6% dividend yield. It could double from these low levels.
Anglo American Plc (Nasdaq:AAUK) is a platinum play and is paying a 5% yield. This, too, looks like it could double in a bear market rally.
Photronics, Inc. (Nasdaq:PLAB) is dirt-cheap. This company is a world leader in the manufacturing of photomasks for the semiconductor industry, and insiders are buying the stock, and it could triple from here.
How does your advisory service help its subscribers/clients get through times like these?
We believe in risk control, and we have a proprietary timing indicator called "The Grail" that helps us to buy low and sell high. We have an investment team at Coby Lamson Capital Management of 4 portfolio managers with over a century of money management experience. We are not long-only investors who buy and hold stocks in a collapse. We go long and short and are tactical in our approach to the markets.
If you had an average investor standing in front of you, what would you say to him/her to ease concerns and raise confidence in the economy and markets?
I couldn’t really do that other than to say we are prepared at CLCM to be as defensive or offensive as needed for profits combined with protection for any future market environment. I would explain to the investor that we have just completed the 1929 crash in percentage terms and that we then had a huge bear market rally from December 1929 to April 1930 that would take the current DJIA to 10,800. After that rally we collapsed for a total of 89%, which would take the market to 1600 if we repeated the 1930-1932 crash. I would tell investors to follow an advisor that understands these possibilities and a money manager who is prepared to protect and even possibly profit if such a dire scenario were to unfold. If it does, then we will head into the new great global depression of the 21st century like my new book, "The Upside of Down," addresses and that would not be very comforting. However it could ease investors concerns knowing they have their money with an advisor who is prepared for any circumstance or market environment.
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IAN! My name is Alma Teresa Turrubiate. I was born in the late 40s and a baby boomer. My family both mom and pops served in Military and retired from Kelly Airforce Base in San Antonio, Texas. I have been living in Los Angeles Area for 25 years now. My daughter had what I feel as a parent the best of the best upbringing in a private school. She is very smart and works for a really good company that is pretty steady right now. However she is 31 and has 2 boys and from her current IRA her portfolio’s loss after all that happened in the stock market she lost 20%. Well many of us may say she is young and will recover later. Because of this I have become very skeptical about the stock market.
My question is that what do you consider to be private Investment Company’s as opposed to Stocks. Also, I remember at age 27 around the time of the Vietnaum War, my mom always penny pinched every penny she could just to pay John Hancock her whole life insurance policy. Poor Mom, I wish she would have listened to me and my taughts to her strategy, because when my Dad died in 2004 that policy was only $10,000 dollars. I hate insurance companies I really do. So I tell my mom, no I am not insured, and no I do not have any thing going for me as far as retirement. That is sad for me because all my life I worked for non-profit agencies helping people of all avenues of life 2 full time jobs and nothing to show for it. So I really like the TradeMasters System/Triger. And I don’t have a hole lot of money but I want something that will happen within the next 10 years. I figure that at 63 years old and still looking young, a Law Graduate Student on A Doctor’s degree may never get me the wealth that I dreamed all my life. But if I start something like TradeMasters and when I get my settlement of an accident that was just settled 12/30/08, I want to add more than 50 dollars a month. I am sure by the time I am 73 I hope to God I will not have to dip into Social Security because thats not surving. I am currently on Social Security Disability. I graduate next year with a Juris Doctorate Degree in Law.
I did not come from rich folks, but everyone of us 8 kids worked. We lost a brother in Naum a Marine at age 19. That was the most devestating thing that happend in our lives. I was a great parent a single mother, only one great daughter. She makes good money and works for a great company. However, the greatest thing of her is that she thinks highly in her world. She baught her own home at age 19. It was a fixer upper. Her and her husband made this place go from $140,000 to Countrywides figuire of $500,000 dollars. She did suffer the crunch because her husband was cut many hours in his job and she was carrying the load. Just 3 months before Fannie Mae announced the big one she had refinanced the home for $285,000. That was pure luck but now she has to pay mortgage payments of $2,200 thats pretty steep. My daughter has always been high maintenance, noble independent, young and hard working. Before this job she lost the job with Newport’s Place at World Com Communications/MCI.
Please give some sound advice if you can because I have also watched the video on OTC journal’s CER. They say in 10 years this CER will profit about a trillion dollar operation. What do you think of that? It is quite possible. However, somehting about Triger that caught my eye. So is this secure “TradeMasters”? and if so why is it not trading world wide like everyone else. China seems to be growing in an energy growth operation. What about Japan, Its top technological operation on automobile’s and computers. Also the Auto Industry. US Auto/Hybrid Engine “MEXICO” How the hell did that happen? I honestly have to say college really helped a whole lot. It was a late time for me. I started at age about 55 in 1995 Law and Administrative Business, MBA and now Law again. Please write back to <teresa> I really want something to happen for me quick so my daughter, son and grand children will at least get something to their future from a large investment of mine when I leave my great world. Thanks again.