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Posts tagged with: Citigroup

I don’t like to accuse people of lying. Those are fighting words. But after last night’s 60 Minutes interview with Fed Chief Ben Bernanke I am compelled to say that I don’t think he’s telling the truth about America’s banks. 

The interviewer asked point blank if Bernanke believed our banks are solvent. Bernanke responded with an unblinking, unflinching "yes." 

Of course he used the recently performed "stress tests" as his measuring stick. And that’s where the problems begin…

WFC |
 

Russia is grumbling. Seems they are not happy that rising debt, slow growth and record Treasury bond sales are dragging the U.S. dollar down. In fact, Russian president Medvedev is calling for some kind of global currency to replace the U.S dollar as the world’s reserve currency. (Sound familiar? Like he’s taking a page from the Chinese?) 

In an interview with CNBC on Monday he said, "We need some kind of universal means of payment, which could create the basis of a future international financial system…"

AXP |
 

Perhaps you’ve heard the phrase "the sins of the father shall be visited on the son." Well, here’s a case where that’s definitely not true:  

Yesterday, The Travelers (NYSE:TRV) insurance took the place of its parent Citigroup (NYSE:C) on the Dow Industrials Average.  

Reuters reports that in 2002, when Citigroup spun off The Travelers, former Citigroup CEO and founder Sandy Weil said he wanted to focus on "…important opportunities to invest our capital really on a global basis, in much more high-growth businesses."

TRV |
 

I figured Citigroup (NYSE:C) would be asked to raise more cash to insulate it against further losses. But when I read that the Treasury will raise reserve requirements for all 19 banks subjected to the Treasury’s "stress tests," it suddenly made sense.

 

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Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is having his "Lucy" moment today. Yes, he’s got "a lot of explaining to do …" 

He’s speaking before Congress today to answer questions as to how the Public-Private Investment Program will actually remove toxic assets and protect taxpayer money at the same time. Also up for explanation is how the remaining $110 billion in TARP money is enough to fund any future bank rescues. 

I don’t envy Geithner one bit. That’s because there’s no way he can adequately answer these questions:


 

I hate to keep talking oil here, but the sticky stuff is a great proxy for what’s going on with the economy and the financial markets. On the one hand, demand is down considerably, even OPEC has cut production and inventories are rising to the point that some analysts are saying "…we’re swimming in the stuff…"

 

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If you think the financial crisis on Wall Street was big news, just wait...the details of the "secret money funnel" from Washington to Wall Street are just coming out now.

AIG |
 

Stocks made another impressive move higher on Thursday. I think we’re all enjoying seeing a little upside for stock prices. There is a light at the end of the tunnel. But I don’t want us to lose sight of the near certainty that at least one of the lights we’ll see in the darkness will be the proverbial oncoming train. 

Market bottoms can be difficult events to get a handle on. Bullish and bearish sentiment is in equilibrium. As individual investors, we might feel that things aren’t getting any worse, but they aren’t getting better, either. Sell-offs appear to clearly be buying opportunities (like when the Dow dropped to 6,440), but any upside is immediately suspect because there’s no real improvement to the fundamental picture.

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More depressing forecasts for the big banks from the best big bank analyst out there, Meredith Whitney. You may recall it was Whitney who forecast the dividend cut at Citigroup (NYSE:C) back in October 2007. That was three months before Citigroup actually cut its dividend. Whitney should also be credited as one of the few analysts to see the financial meltdown coming.

 

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So, on Friday I made the rally call. The Dow Industrials were up 217 points. Now, after a conversation with TradeMaster strategist Jason Cimpl, I’m a little nervous about stocks following through. 

Jason believes Friday’s rally was short-covering. His indicator? Oil. 

Oil prices fell Friday, while stocks rallied across the board. As you know I expect stocks to rally in anticipation of the stimulus bill and then next banking measure. It is my opinion that investors perceive these initiatives as help for the economy in recovering from recession. Not a cure-all, just help. 

If investors see light at the end of the tunnel, oil should rally too. After all, production has been cut. And despite growing reserves, oil will rally when it appears the economy will get back to growth.

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Once again, the Dow Industrials has confirmed that there is support around the 8,000 level. Yesterday’s bounce marked the 12th time the Dow has bounced as it approached 8,000 since October. Only once has it failed to do so. That was November 20, when it set the low for this bear market at 7,464.

BAC | comment
 

 

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