Despite government efforts, health care costs continue to rise to unacceptable levels in the U.S. But there are alternatives that offer dependable care at substantially less cost to patients and to taxpayers, and I believe one option, home health care, will become an important alternative to lengthy hospital and nursing home stays. My top stock for 2010 is the largest company in the home health care sector whose impeccable reputation for delivering reliable care is providing the company with exciting new opportunities for exceptional growth. Amedisys is a leading provider of home health care and hospice services. The company typically provides skilled nurses or nurse assistants who coordinate health care with the patient’s family and physician. The company operates more than 500 Medicare-certified home health agencies and 50 hospice agencies in 37 U.S. states and Puerto Rico. The company’s home health care services provide assistance to patients recovering from illness, injury or surgery in their own homes. Additional services include maintaining and improving patients’ quality of life through physical, speech or other therapy. For example, the company educates patients on how to avoid falls in the home, which are the leading causes of patients re-entering...

BMC's long-term contracts sustained stable profits during the downturn. Over the next 12 months, results should benefit as clients resume spending on technology. Consensus estimates project per-share profits will advance 15% in fiscal 2010 ending March - and grow 14% annually over the next five years. Recent acquisitions have bolstered BMC's promising segment for automating data-center activities. Fortune 500 companies comprise more than 85% of BMC's client list, and such companies are unlikely to abandon cost-cutting initiatives once the environment improves. Reflecting this optimism and better-than-expected results for the September quarter, BMC in October raised profit guidance for fiscal 2010. With a trailing price/earnings ratio of 15, BMC trades at a discount to its three-year average P/E of 22 and five-year average of 27. If the P/E returned to the three-year average and BMC matched consensus profit estimates, the stock would trade at $58 next year. While that target seems a stretch, BMC seems fully capable of reaching $45 to $50. BMC is a Focus List Buy and a Long-Term Buy. Editor note: Horizon Publishing editors Richard Moroney and Chuck Carlson will be conducting a free online virtual conference to discuss their favorite stocks and strategies for the...

We’ve long maintained that watching China’s growth in recent decades has been like watching a video of American history … but played at fast-forward speed. The transition from farming to industrial production was accomplished in one generation (in part by following the U.S. roadmap) and now the country is entering into the software era. Longtop Financial Technologies was founded in 1996 as a financial systems integration company, but made the transition to software and solutions in 2001. Today it’s the #1 developer of banking software in China and the #2 developer of software for the insurance industry. And now it’s breaking into the securities industry; Longtop announced its first contract there in November. Longtop’s main customers are banks; they accounted for 82% of revenue in the latest quarter. And its biggest bank customers (no surprise) are the 'Big Four' banks of China. These are the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Bank of China, the China Construction Bank, and the Agricultural Bank of China. These four banks together hold more than 65% of domestic market share. For Longtop, three of them (it’s working to get business from the fourth) accounted for 48% of revenues...

History has shown conclusively that there is one asset class that thrives above all others under these hostile conditions: commodities. A depreciating dollar is a sure-fire recipe for rising commodity prices. And when inflation is on the rampage, investors always like the reassurance of owning hard assets. Instead of watching prices for things like steel and gasoline rise all around you, why not convert your dollars into these commodities directly and enjoy the ride? Even if the Fed does manage to keep inflation in check, we believe that good old supply-and-demand fundamentals favor rising prices anyway. With the global economy getting back on track and emerging powers like China swallowing mountains of raw materials, the short-circuited commodities rally will have juice once again. Investors have a dizzying array of options here, but our favorite is Market Vectors Hard Assets. The fund is invested in six commodity sub-sectors.with top billing going to the energy sector, where integrated oil gas giants, offshore drillers and equipment/service providers soak up about 40% of the fund's assets. Elsewhere, shareholders will have a large stake in agricultural firms, ample exposure to gold and silver producers, along with aluminum, nickel, iron ore and...

AOL's merger with Time Warner in 2001 was hailed (by some) at the time as an innovative marriage of old and new media. But AOL’s dial-up Internet access model was already under pressure by the time of the merger, and the AOL and Time Warner cultures never meshed. The merger is now regarded as one of the most disastrous in U.S. corporate history, losing more than $100 billion in market value. Steve Case, the deal’s architect , resigned the chairmanship of the combined company two years later and left the board in 2005. Time Warner has been looking to rid itself of AOL ever since. So it was no surprise that Time Warner’s spin-off of AOL in early December 2009 was met with a heaping armful of skepticism. We have seen multiple media outlets weigh in negatively on AOL, perhaps an indication of how Wall Street is currently viewing the stock. In fact, the shares were initiated at 'underperform' by a major brokerage house in December. Moreover, Zacks reports that the stock has earned one 'strong buy' rating, one 'hold,' and two 'strong sells.' Therefore, we view the upgrade potential on AOL...

Its initial market target has been what's termed as CESR (Carrier Network Switching and Routing). EZCH has since expanded its focus to include products that are broadly grouped into what's called the 'Access' market. Between organic demand growth in the CESR market and EZCH's expansion into the Access markets, it is estimated the company will be addressing a total available market potential of about $1.5B by 2012. That implies substantial upside revenue potential for a company that will report somewhat less than $40M in revenue for calendar 2009. In 2010, EZCH will be shipping NP2 and NP3 / NP3C network processors in volume to its CESR customer base. In addition to this, we'll also see the initial revenue generated from its next generation CESR solution, the NP4 and its debut Access product, the NPAx. Notable production ramps for the NPA and NP4, which sells for roughly twice the price of a NP3, will begin in 2011. Revenue from its NP2 will likely peak in late 2010 or 2011 as Juniper winds down its demand and replaces the NP2 with an internally designed ASIC. However, I believe this will be much more than...

Ford shocked Wall Street and Washington two months ago in reporting its first positive cash-flow quarter in more than two years. Of course, it played some accounting games to do it, but the overall direction is up. Ford made its first billion by successfully increasing domestic sales for the first time in nearly five years, and boosting market share against its chief rivals, Government Motors (GM) and Crying Chrysler. Meanwhile, the #2 auto maker predicted it would turn solidly profitable by 2011 as a result of its cost cutting measures and renegotiations with the unions. Ford is the only major US auto maker not begging for a government bailout last year. This isn’t the first time Ford has broken away from the government trough. In the early 1980s, Ford executives opposed the call for import quotas on Japanese cars and took on their competitors by raising quality standards. I’ve been a long-time buyer of Ford cars, including two Mustangs, an Explorer truck, and a Lincoln Town Car. I have enjoyed relatively maintenance free service for years. Maybe my experience is exceptional, but most car rating services, such as...

The company reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings, primarily because of a lower costs associated with US operations, increased volumes of metallurgical coal, and strong trading results. Net income and revenue were down 71% and 12%, respectively, hurt mainly by lower US demand. But despite a difficult economic environment, Peabody expanded US margins and shipped record volumes of coal in the third quarter. Although demand from Japan and South Korea hasn’t bounced back as strongly as it has in the early stages of prior recoveries, China has more than made up for this shortfall, emerging as a top coal importer. In the first nine months of 2009, Chinese imports of thermal and coking coal rose 167% and 400%, respectively. And India will rely heavily on coal imports over the next five to six years to feed its rising domestic consumption of electricity. Peabody CEO Greg Boyce anticipates that China will grow by 8% and India will grow by 6% in 2009, with even more impressive rates in 2010. As a result, management projects markets for metallurgical and thermal coal to have a 7.5% compound annual growth rate in the next five-plus years as demand for steel and coal-fueled...